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S.Korea flags policy normalisation, shrugs off yuan
Reuters - Monday, June 21
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* Central bank, finance ministry stress inflation risk
* Rhetoric on Europe crisis generally modest
* Seen as flagging tightening ahead; bond prices fall
* Officials play down impact of yuan policy change
By Kim Yeon-hee
SEOUL, June 21 - South Korea's financial authorities said on Monday they needed to watch price pressures building up in the course of sustained economic recovery, cementing rate rise expectations and driving bonds lower.
The country's central bank and the finance ministry cited the uncertainty caused by Europe's fiscal woes as a risk to growth, but bond traders said the overall message appeared to set the stage for an interest rate rise in the next three months.
"In the course of continued economic expansion ... demand-pull pressure will gradually build and public service charge increases will likely be carried out," Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong-soo said in a speech at a business forum.
The three-year treasury bond futures September contract <KTBc1> fell 0.15 point to 110.54 by 0350 GMT, while the benchmark five-year treasury bond yield <KRTSY5Y=KQ> rose 2 basis points to 4.43 percent.
"Talking of prices on and on would mean he wants to raise interest rates," said Park Tae-geun, a fixed-income analyst of Hanwha Securities. "He gives a signal to a second-half rise in interest rates."
The central bank later echoed its language in its policy report to parliament.
The finance ministry said in its report to parliament that it would focus its future policy on sustaining economic growth while keeping domestic consumer inflation stable.
The prepared remarks made no mention of China's weekend pledge to allow greater flexibility of its yuan, though local news agency quoted Kim as saying that Beijing's move could exert some limited upward pressure on the won <KRW=>.[ID:nTOE65K008]
At another parliamentary committee, Knowledge Economy Minister Choi Kyung-hwan, in charge of industrial and foreign trade policy, played down the impact of China's move on South Korean exports.
"The dominant view is that won't have any positive or negative impact on our exports but could contribute to improving the environment for world trade by lessening imbalances," Choi said.
South Korean policymakers often cite markets' views when asked to comment on sensitive subjects.
The finance ministry also said it would promote normalisation of macroeconomic policy, though Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun said Europe's debt problems could delay the unwinding of emergency policies adopted during the financial crisis .
Yoon has said that in South Korea's case bringing policy closer to normal would primarily involve raising interest rates from record lows given that most of the measures adopted to help the economy weather the crisis have already been withdrawn.
The central bank also said that while policymakers should consider possible economic impact of turbulent markets, they also had to keep in mind risks posed by a long spell of low rates.
"We will closely assess the impact on the domestic economy's growth from the external uncertainty such as fiscal problems in southern European countries and the possible imbalances arising from keeping interest rates low for a long time," the central bank said in its report.
Bond investors have been pricing a rate rise since May when the central bank surprised markets with its tough language on inflation risks. However, market jitters caused by Europe's debt woes cast some doubt over the timing of the widely anticipated move. The Bank of Korea has kept its base rate at record-low 2 percent for over a year.
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