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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail More Yahoo! Services Account Options New User? Sign Up Sign In Help Yahoo! Search web search Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Singapore Asia Pacific World FACTBOX-Five political risks to watch in New Zealand Reuters - Tuesday, February 2 Send IM Story Print By Gyles Beckford WELLINGTON, Feb 1 - After facing the risk of a sovereign downgrade last year, New Zealand's economic fortunes have improved, although a surge in the value of the local currency threatens to put the brakes on recovery. Following is a summary of key New Zealand political risks: PUBLIC DEBT AND POLICY CONSTRAINTS New Zealand's public finances remain pressured as revenue continues to feel the pinch from the global crisis, forcing hefty government borrowing to finance the shortfall. The government needs to continue a tight hold on its fiscal position with ratings agencies hovering in the background. New Zealand's economic fortunes have improved and there is no imminent risk of a downgrade, but the country's debt level and the constraints it places on policy remain a key theme. What to watch: -- National debt and budget deficit data. If New Zealand fails to meet its target deficits in coming years, it could again face the risk of a downgrade by sovereign ratings agencies. This would push down not just debt prices <NZ10YT=RR> but also the Kiwi dollar <NZD=D2> and shares in New Zealand firms <.AX>. -- The timing of withdrawal of economic stimulus will be important in reducing budget deficits and borrowing, and should help ease pressure on interest rates. But as with most economies, if the exit is wrongly timed, growth could take another hit. THE TROUBLESOME KIWI DOLLAR Another constraint on government policy is the fact the Kiwi dollar has a life of its own, because it is widely used by global markets as a proxy play for risk appetite and global growth prospects. This means it faces significant volatility that has nothing to do with New Zealand's domestic economic fortunes. What to watch: -- Policy response. Finance Minister Bill English and the central bank governor Alan Bollard have said repeatedly that the currency is not reflecting fundamentals and is overvalued. But they have also conceded there is little they can do about it, given it is largely a reflection of a weak U.S. dollar. Any sign that speculative trading might be curtailed by the authorities could bring the Kiwi sharply lower. TAX REFORM A major report commissioned by the government has said New Zealand's tax system is broken and needs a radical shake-up. Among its suggestions are moves to close down the loopholes and anomalies that have given property investment a favoured position; raising the level of the indirect, value-added Goods and Services Tax but compensating low-income earners; cutting the top personal tax rate and corporate taxes; and considering a land tax. [ID:nSGE6010J0] Many of the recommended measures are politically difficult and will require delicate negotiations between the ruling National Party and its partners. Any hint of favouring big business over individuals, or increased tax burdens on families, could lead to tension and a rapid decline in National's high political ratings. An election is not due until late 2011 but National has shown itself to be sensitive to public opinion. What to watch: -- The annual budget unveiled in May. Measures National feels safe and comfortable making are likely to be announced then. GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS The centre-right National Party leads a minority government with the support of three smaller partners. The three have pledged to support National on key matters of supply and confidence, ensuring its political survival, but much of the rest of National's political programme comes down to negotiation on specific policies. This leads at times to compromise and delays. What to watch: -- The government is expected to last its three-year term but at times may struggle to push through pieces of policy, or be forced to make concessions which are unpopular with its support base in order to get laws passed. CLIMATE CHANGE As an island nation, New Zealand is vulnerable to the impact of climate change. The government has pledged to bring carbon emissions to a target of 10-20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. The necessary laws have been passed but the government is yet to commit to a specific target or set a price on carbon. What to watch: -- The impact of legislation. What level of cost will the emissions trading scheme impose on businesses? -- Weather patterns, for any evidence that New Zealand is becoming more vulnerable to extreme weather events. 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