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Analysis: Democrats tasked with delivering change
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Analysis: Democrats tasked with delivering change
By TOMOKO A. HOSAKA,Associated Press Writer AP - Monday, August 31
TOKYO - Sunday's election results in Japan may seem like a clear mandate for change. Looks can be misleading.
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Japan's voters resoundingly kicked out the party that has governed their country for virtually all the past half century. The newly empowered Democratic Party of Japan's time to celebrate, though, could be short-lived.
They've made their promises, and now they have to deliver _ a tall order for a party with a shaky mandate. The numbers may show landslide, but most voters were seen as venting dissatisfaction with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party more so than endorsing the policies of the opposition.
The beneficiary of the public's frustration is the Democratic Party, which has laid out a populist platform with promises to expand the country's social safety net. The media projected late Sunday night that the party would capture 300 of 480 lower house seats _ more than enough to control the national agenda.
Many Democratic candidates, who have never experienced such sweet victory, seemed stunned by the results, overcome with emotion by the historic nature of their win.
Savoring triumph now is probably a good idea. The political high is unlikely to last very long. As President Barack Obama is discovering now with health care reform, touting change is a lot easier than making it happen.
The Democrats first task will be to convince a skeptical public that they can actually lead.
"I feel very insecure with the Democratic Party of Japan," said 65-year-old voter Shuji Ueki a few hours after the polls closed. "They don't have a record."
Indeed, the Democrats are untested, made up of an inexperienced group of left-wing activists and LDP defectors. The party is just 11 years old, and only a handful have served in top government positions.
Their rise to power _ and ability to enact change _ comes at a critical crossroads for the world's second-largest economy.
Japan managed to climb out of a yearlong recession in the second quarter, but its economy remains weak. Unemployment and anxiety over falling wages threatens to undermine any recovery. The jobless rate has risen to a record 5.7 percent. After a rapid succession of three administrations in three years, Japan is facing its worst crisis of confidence in decades.
In the long-term it faces a bleak outlook if it isn't able to figure out how to cope with a rapidly aging and shrinking population. Government estimates predict the figure will drop to 115 million in 2030 and fall below 100 million by the middle of the century.
The Democrats' solution is to move Japan away from a corporate-centric economic model to one that focuses on helping people. They have proposed an expensive array of initiatives: cash handouts to families and farmers, toll-free highways, a higher minimum wage and tax cuts. The estimated bill comes to 16.8 trillion yen ($179 billion) when fully implemented starting in the 2013 fiscal year.
The party has said it plans to cut "waste" and rely on untapped financial reserves to fund their programs. But with Japan's public debt heading toward 200 percent of gross domestic product, the Democrats plan has been criticized as a financial fantasy that would worsen Japan's precarious fiscal health.
The Democrats are also under scrutiny for their positions on national security and foreign policy.
Party leader Yukio Hatoyama, set to become Japan's next prime minister, has been vocal about distancing the country from Washington and forging closer ties with its Asian neighbors.
As opposition leader, he routinely criticized the pro-U.S. Liberal Democrats for joining in refueling operations in the Indian Ocean in support of American troops in Afghanistan _ a mission he says he will halt _ and the role of the 50,000 American troops deployed throughout Japan under a post World War II mutual security pact.
But the Democrats' most formidable roadblock will probably be Japan's massive bureaucracy, which for decades has had a cozy relationship with the Liberal Democrats and effectively runs the government. The new ruling party has vowed to do what no one has managed to so far: limit the bureaucracy's power and hand more control over to elected officials.
Japanese reporters descended upon Democratic headquarters Sunday night to chronicle history _ and to ask whether the win will translate into actual change.
Ichiro Ozawa, co-founder of the party, tried to downplay the elation but expressed a quiet confidence.
"We have no fear, and we will steadily achieve our campaign promises one by one," he said.
___
EDITOR'S NOTE _ Tomoko A. Hosaka, who covers the Japanese economy for the Associated Press, has been a journalist in Japan since 2005.
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