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My Profile Top News Reuters top ten news stories delivered to your inbox each day. Subscribe You are here: Home > News > International > Article Home Business & Finance News U.S. Politics International Technology Entertainment Sports Lifestyle Oddly Enough Health Science Special Coverage Video Pictures Your View The Great Debate Blogs Weather Reader Feedback Do More With Reuters RSS Widgets Mobile Podcasts Newsletters Your View Make Reuters My Homepage Partner Services CareerBuilder Affiliate Network Professional Products Support (Customer Zone) Reuters Media Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Thai politics a drag on economic recovery: Fitch Mon Aug 31, 2009 3:04am EDT Email | Print | Share | Reprints | Single Page [-] Text [+] By Jason Szep BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's recovery could be handicapped by its political crisis, rating agency Fitch said on Monday, predicting Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy would shrink 3.1 percent this year and face mild deflation. "In terms of structural issues, for us it goes back to politics," James McCormack, head of Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings, told a conference in Bangkok. "We just don't think it's fully or completely resolved in Thailand." Supporters of ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra have held four big rallies in Bangkok since April, when the Thai military was brought in to end anti-government riots that killed two people and injured more than 100. "That's an issue that just kind of lingers from a rating perspective," McCormack said, adding that its economic recovery was therefore "still subject to political setbacks." On April 16, days after the end of violent street protests, Fitch cut Thailand's sovereign credit rating by one notch to BBB and its local currency rating by one notch to A-minus, citing the turmoil.. It also raised its outlook to stable from negative, in a hint that another downgrade might be unlikely. "For the rating to move back up, we would need to see a meaningful medium- to long-term solution to the political issues that we see in Thailand. We don't think we have seen that yet," McCormack said. Through phone-ins, video messages and social networking website Facebook, Thaksin has urged his red-shirted supporters to rise up against the government led by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who he says has poorly managed the economy. Thousands of supporters of Thaksin, who was ousted in a 2006 coup, plan to rally again this coming weekend after postponing a protest planned for last Sunday. WEAK WAGES, STRONG PUBLIC FINANCES McCormack said he expected the economy to shrink 3.1 percent this year with consumer prices falling about 1 percent. While exports are recovering and companies are hiring again, wages remain weak, undermining consumer spending, he added. Thailand, a production hub for companies such as Toyota, grew 2.3 percent in the second quarter from the previous quarter, emerging from recession. The state agency that compiles gross domestic product data expects the economy to contract between 3.0 and 3.5 percent this year. McCormack said public finances were relatively strong, with debt levels low as a percentage of GDP. In a separate presentation, Lertchai Kochareonrattanakul, senior director for corporates at Fitch, said there were signs of an improving corporate outlook but that political risks were evident here, too. These could have an adverse impact on consumer confidence and the investment climate.. Vincent Milton, senior director at Fitch for financial institutions, said asset quality at Thai banks could deteriorate and they might have to increase provisions. Continued... View article on single page Share: Del.icio.us Digg Mixx Yahoo! 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