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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail Yahoo! Search Search: Sign InNew User? Sign Up News Home - Help Navigation Primary Navigation Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Secondary Navigation Singapore Asia Pacific World Search Search: RPT-SCENARIOS-NZ cen bank to hold rate, eyes on policy stance Reuters - Thursday, September 10 By Mantik Kusjanto and Gyles Beckford ADVERTISEMENT WELLINGTON, Sept 7 - New Zealand's central bank is expected to keep its key rate at a record low when it meets on Thursday, but markets are focusing on a possible shift in its monetary stance as the economy emerges from recession. A Reuters poll of 17 analysts found 16 expected the Reserve Bank of NZ to keep its official cash rate unchanged at 2.5 percent for the third consecutive month, while one economist forecast a 25 basis point cut. [NZ-POLL] It has cut rates 575 basis points since July last year, but has been on hold since June, saying repeatedly it will keep rates at the current level or lower until the latter part of 2010. The central bank is in a difficult position now as to how long to maintain its easy stimulatory policy as a growing list of data points to a gradual recovery, and financial conditions -- currency and interest rates -- have tightened. Financial markets are pricing in a rate rise early next year, with the nine-month overnight indexed swap <NZD9MOIS=> indicated at 2.60 percent, and one-year <NZD1YOIS=> at 2.79 percent. RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard said last week markets were not always right, when asked about markets pricing in an early start of the tightening cycle, ahead of the RBNZ's projections. Following are some scenarios on what the RBNZ might say and do: RBNZ REPEATS LOW FOR LONGER POLICY -- THE STATUS QUO The most likely and expected outcome, with the central bank reaffirming its policy "to keep the official cash rate at or below the current level through until the latter part of 2010" until it sees signs of sustainable growth locally and globally. The RBNZ is wary of being seen as even the slightest bit hawkish to keep a lid on expectations of a rate rise and not spark further rises in the currency or wholesale rates which may jeopardise a "fragile" economic recovery. New Zealand has been in recession since the start of 2008. The New Zealand dollar <NZD=> has gained more than 30 percent since March on hopes of a global economic recovery, and the RBNZ has noted on several occasions that the danger a strong currency poses to the external side of the economy. The RBNZ's preferred currency measure, the NZ dollar trade weighted index <=NZD>, is around 10 percent ahead of the bank's forecasts made in June. But at 63, the current level of the index was close to long-run average of around 61, keeping analysts sceptical about the risk of any central bank intervention to weaken the kiwi. A reiteration of this stance could dampen market enthusiasm on the steadily appreciating currency, and help cool the interest rate swap market <NZDIRS>. Interest rate swaps have risen in anticipation of higher rates and an improving global outlook, with two-year swaps <NZDSM3NB2y=> increasing to 4.10 percent from 3.95 percent at the last review in late July. According to ANZ-National, markets are only pricing in a 4 percent chance of a cut this week, leaving little to reverse if RBNZ keeps its stance. RBNZ DROPS REFERENCE TO KEEPING RATES LOWER FOR LONGER An outside chance would be for the RBNZ to temper its explicit easing bias, similar to the Reserve Bank of Australia in August. The RBNZ has been saying since June: "The OCR could still move modestly lower over the coming quarters. We continue to expect to keep the OCR at or below the current level through until the latter part of 2010". The RBNZ could drop the reference to "lower" or "below", implying a shift to neutral and preparing the market for a rate hike to come earlier than the latter part of 2010. Expectations for such a move have increased as New Zealand looks to emerge from recession in the next quarter, helped by low rates, fiscal stimulus and higher migration gains. Business and consumer confidence have also improved, and the property market is gaining momentum, albeit at lower levels. A departure from its dovish stance would further tighten market conditions, with wholesale rates rising and the New Zealand dollar strengthening further. But some analysts argue that with tame inflation -- 1.9 percent in the year to June 30 -- restrained wage growth and risin RBNZ CUTS ITS CASH RATE BY 25 BASIS POINTS The "out of left field" choice, backed by only one analyst. The argument goes that the stronger NZ dollar and higher interest rates of recent months have already delivered an unwelcome and unnecessary tightening of financial conditions, threatening the nascent recovery. Proponents -- largely exporters and manufacturers -- say that the RBNZ's attempts to "jawbone" the NZ dollar and interest rates lower at various times this year have fallen largely on deaf ears, which supports action, not more words. Such a move would undoubtedly surprise and lead to a temporary fall in the currency and interest rates, but in all likelihood it would be just that -- temporary. Email Story IM Story Printable View Blog This Sign in to recommend this article » 0 users recommend Related Articles: Business Taiwan says sees financial MOU with China soonReuters - Thursday, September 10 Chinese c.bank sets yuan mid-point at 6.8288Reuters - Thursday, September 10 JGB futures hand back gains and dip as Nikkei advancesReuters - Thursday, September 10 Samsung-Bosch JV to invest $409 mln in battery plantReuters - Thursday, September 10 Japan Hot Stocks-Kirin, Hoya, Daiei, Fujifilm, Sanyo, PanasonicReuters - Thursday, September 10 Most Popular – Business Viewed Giant statues reveal red hat secrets: study Greenspan says further financial crisis 'inevitable' Hershey considers rival Cadbury bid: report Anti-piracy equipment dazzles defence fair New Alzheimer's gene link discovered View Complete List » Search: Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! Southeast Asia Pte Ltd. (Co. Reg. 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