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Oil ends 2008 with surge, but more than 100 dlrs below record
AFP - Thursday, January 1
NEW YORK (AFP) - - Oil prices surged Wednesday at the end of a tumultuous 2008 which saw crude zoom to record peaks mid-year only to fall precipitously as the global financial crisis pummelled economies.
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for February, leapt 5.57 dollars a barrel, nearly 15 percent, to close at 44.60 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In London, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in February advanced 5.55 dollars to settle at 45.59 dollars a barrel on the InterContinental Exchange.
Prices have fallen dramatically since hitting record peaks above 147 dollars in mid-July, mirroring a sharp contraction in energy demand as the global financial crisis spread into a global meltdown.
On December 19 the New York contract fell as low as 32.40 dollars a barrel. It ended the year 53.5 percent lower than a year ago.
Both benchmark contracts are about 70 percent below their July 11 peaks.
Prices shot up Wednesday after the US Department of Energy's weekly energy report showed an increase in crude reserves in the world's biggest energy consumer that appeared to disappoint some investors.
"Maybe (traders) were expecting a little bit more," said Andy Lipow at Lipow Oil Associates.
But overall, "there are plenty of products out there and we are in the middle of winter and over the last four weeks inventories have risen," he said.
"It's hard to get bullish on that," he added.
"The market had a pretty torrid few months ... a hell of a lot of uncertainty," said Mark Pervan, senior commodities analyst at ANZ Bank.
With recession curbing demand, prices risk slumping further in 2009, according to analysts.
"The relentless cadence of dismal economic news will probably keep energy prices on the defensive into 2009, until the scope of the new (US) administration's stimulus package can be assessed," said Mike Fitzpatrick at MF Global.
US president-elect Barack Obama, who takes office on January 20, plans to spend up to 775 billion dollars on an economic stimulus, his top aides said recently.
"Whatever that program may entail, the level of government borrowing to the present and that to come will leave the dollar a deeply flawed currency, which by itself should keep a floor under oil prices," Fitzpatrick added.
ANZ's Pervan said he expected prices to fall a little lower in January before bottoming out in February and rising in March or April.
"There is no quick fix, quick recovery in the near term," said the energy market analyst.
Oil prices began this week with sharp gains as the Israeli-Hamas conflict in Gaza stoked tensions in the key oil-producing Middle East.
Analysts said price gains Monday had also been supported by evidence that the OPEC oil producers' cartel was cutting output in line with an announcement earlier this month.
Previous OPEC cuts have often been met with only partial compliance.
Oil prices began 2008 by vaulting above 100 dollars for the first time as traders worried about violence in oil exporter Nigeria and supply problems in the key US energy market.
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