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China's 3G rollout sets off sales scramble
By JOE McDONALD,AP Business Writer AP - Thursday, January 1
BEIJING - China is starting a long-delayed introduction of third-generation mobile phone service, setting off a politically charged scramble by foreign and Chinese equipment makers for up to $41 billion in orders.
Chinese sales could be crucial for suppliers such as Motorola Inc., Alcatel-Lucent SA and Nokia-Siemens Networks as global demand slumps. State media say the largest carrier, China Mobile, expects to sign up 100 million 3G subscribers in three years _ more than most nations' entire mobile markets.
"The China market is one of the most important markets for Alcatel-Lucent," said a spokeswoman for the French-U.S. company, Alix Cavallari, in an e-mail. She said China will be "an important percentage" of its 3G sales.
On Wednesday, the Cabinet announced it had formally approved issuing 3G licenses.
But how much business global suppliers get depends in part on whether regulators try to boost China's high-tech industry by ordering carriers to buy domestic products. Beijing has tried to use such restrictions to nurture other fields, prompting complaints by the United States and other trading partners.
Foreigners are likely to get less than half of China's 3G orders, said Duncan Clark, chairman of BDA China Ltd., a Beijing consulting firm.
"It's basically an intensely political process," Clark said.
The leading domestic suppliers are Huawei Technologies Ltd. and ZTE Ltd., ambitious, government-supported upstarts that already sell low-cost gear in Africa and Asia and are improving their technology.
The United States and European Union are closely watching the selection process and are pressing Beijing to abide by World Trade Organization promises to treat foreign and domestic companies equally.
China has the world's biggest population of mobile phone users, and customers readily pay for the latest games and services. But it is one of the last major markets to adopt 3G, which supports video and other new features.
Beijing delayed issuing licenses while it developed its own 3G standard, called TD-SCDMA, to compete with two global systems. The communist government wants China to create profitable technologies, and telecommunications is one area targeted for development.
The industry minister, Li Yizhong, said last month Beijing will give "strong support" to TD-SCDMA. That suggested more orders might go to Chinese manufacturers that developed the standard, though Li gave no details.
Li said carriers are expected to spend 280 billion yuan ($41 billion) on base stations, switching gear, transmission networks and other infrastructure.
An industry ministry spokesman, Wang Lijian, said he knew of no government order to carriers to buy Chinese equipment.
"Whatever the government does, it will follow big principles, for example WTO principles, so I don't think these issues should be a problem," Wang said.
Even though the carriers are state-owned, Chinese companies sometimes resist orders to take steps that hurt profits. It is unclear whether Chinese equipment is considered good enough to support complex 3G services that will form the core of their future business.
The homegrown standard has been assigned to China Mobile, possibly to ensure that it has adequate backing to succeed. The company is the world's biggest phone carrier by subscribers, with 415 million of China's 590 million mobile accounts.
Global standards WCDMA and CDMA-2000, or EV-DO, went to two smaller rivals.
Such efforts to direct the development of high-tech industry have led to clashes with the United States and Europe.
Washington is arguing with Beijing over a proposal to require government approval for computer security technology sold in China. An official of a Chinese industry group said that restriction would help domestic suppliers develop by restraining foreign competition.
Nokia-Siemens Networks _ owned by Nokia Corp. and Siemens AG _ makes equipment for both China's TD-SCDMA and global standard WCDMA. But if regulators direct TD-SCDMA orders to domestic suppliers, it will be left to compete for sales only to WCDMA user China Unicom, the smallest carrier.
"NSN has been supportive of the TD-SCDMA ecosystem for many years," spokeswoman Maggie Tao said in a written response to questions. "We hope that our investment and support are recognized now and in future."
___
On the Net:
Nokia-Siemens Networks: http://www.nsn.com
Motorola Inc.: http://www.motorola.com
Alcatel-Lucent SA: http://www.alcatel-lucent.com
China Mobile Ltd.: http://www.chinamobileltd.com
China Unicom Ltd.: http://www.chinaunicom.com.hk
Huawei Technologies Ltd.: http://www.huawei.com
ZTE Ltd: http://www.zte.com.cn
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