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World stocks end calamitous 2008, eye recovery
AFP - 2 hours 51 minutes ago
NEW YORK (AFP) - - Global stock markets Wednesday closed out a year suffering the worst losses since the Great Depression, with investors eyeing a possible recovery but cautious in the face of a deep economic crisis.
Investors are assessing the damage of a calamitous year that has sapped 40 percent or more from many stock indexes.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 blue chips suffered a loss of 33.84 percent, the worst since 1931, when the index plunged 52.67 percent.
The broad-market Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 38.49 percent, also the worst in 77 years. It has been as much as 52 percent below its all-time peak in October 2007, marking the worst bear market since 1931, according to S&P.
The Nasdaq composite slid 40.54 percent in 2008, the worst year since its creation in 1971.
Other markets around the world also suffered brutal losses including Japan's Nikkei (42.12 percent), Frankfurt's DAX (40.37 percent) and the Paris CAC 40 (40.37 percent) while London's FTSE has given back 31.33 percent.
Canada's main S&P/TSX index lost 35.03 percent for the year while Brazil's Bovespa slumped 41.22 percent.
Stocks suffered from an extraordinary credit crisis that created panic in financial markets and froze up lending, resulting in a worldwide economic slump.
"It was a year in which our financial system was tested like no other time since the Depression," said Kevin Giddis at Morgan Keegan.
"We saw the complete collapse of storied firms on Wall Street, we saw Treasury bills achieve a negative yield, and we have seen the US government enter the fray in such a way that the walls of capitalism were rocked off its foundation."
With the new year, he said "we carry a lot of our problems with us: a very weak economy, a banking system that is struggling to get back on its feet, and a housing market that is passing into its third year of decline. But there is hope. At some point, the initiatives that the Fed (Federal Reserve) and the Treasury have put forth will work, they have to, and banks will begin to lend on a greater scale."
Art Hogan, analyst at Jefferies, said the year saw devastation on a historic scale.
"It's literally as bad as the market can get, in every shape or form: losses of jobs, economy, devastation in equities and residential real estate," he said.
Because of the unprecedented losses, Hogan said the feeling is that "next year has got to be better."
In other markets, Hong Kong and Singapore had almost halved in value over the year, Sydney lost more than 40 percent, Mumbai 52 percent and Shanghai 65 percent -- the steepest annual loss in the Chinese market's 18-year history.
Sam Stovall, an equity strategist at S&P, said he sees a likely recovery from oversold conditions in 2009.
"There is a good chance that we could be seeing a bit of recovery next year but I still think what I would call a range-bound recovery," he said.
Investors bruised by the worst losses in decades are trying to determine whether the worst is over or if what seems like a rebound will end up being a "sucker rally."
But many analysts are banking on a "bottom" that will allow markets to recover even if the economy is still sputtering.
"The underpinnings of the markets continue to improve, but it is still too early to say that the worst is finally over," says Paul Nolte at Hinsdale Investments.
"Our best guess at this point is that we rally a bit early in the New Year as investors wish 2008 good riddance. However, once the likelihood of a still weak economy persists into the second quarter, we could visit the old lows again," he added.
"We are expecting that the second half of the year is not only good for the market, but also we should begin to see the effects of the huge monetary 'dump' and the economy should also begin to improve."
Fred Dickson, equity strategist at DA Davidson, said market sentiment may be recovering from its depths, helped by the vast array of actions by the Federal Reserve and US government and its counterparts around the world seeking to jolt life back into the moribund economy.
Dickson said the market "may have seen its psychological low point back on October 15" before the bulk of rescue efforts were announced, but that investors may not yet be out of the woods.
"We believe an optimistic estimate would be that the economy bottoms out next summer," Dickson said.
Yet there is no shortage of doomsayers arguing that the meltdown is not over.
Bill Gross, a respected bond fund manager, argues for caution.
"Stocks are cheap when valued within the context of a financed-based economy once dominated by leverage, cheap financing, and even lower corporate tax rates," he said.
"That world, however, is in our past, not our future."
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