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India's industrial production shrinks in October
By ERIKA KINETZ,AP Business Writer AP - Saturday, December 13
MUMBAI, India - India's industrial production contracted for the first time in 15 years in October, the Ministry of Statistics said Friday, the latest gloomy economic news to cast doubt on government efforts to stimulate growth.
The index of industrial production shrank 0.4 percent in October, due in part to falling production of consumer goods. From April to October, the index grew by 4.1 percent versus 9.9 percent during the same period last year.
The weaker-than-expected data adds to growing skepticism that the government stimulus package announced over the weekend will prove effective.
India's central bank slashed key interest rates by 1 percentage point Saturday and the government announced $4 billion in new spending and a broad four-percentage point tax cut on Sunday.
"While the government's fiscal stimulus package and monetary measures are positive, they are unlikely to reverse the slowdown in growth," Citibank economist Rohini Malkani said Friday.
"A key worry is the contraction in consumer goods, both durables and non durables, which suggests that the 7 percent growth seen during previous years may not sustain," she added.
India's growing budget deficit means it can do far less than a country like China to spend its way out of the slump.
Growth skidded to 7.6 percent last quarter _ from 9.3 percent in the third quarter of 2007 _ and the World Bank said Wednesday that India's economy would grow just 5.8 percent next year.
Goldman Sachs economist Tushar Poddar said he expected further declines in industrial output and deeper rate cuts.
More fresh evidence that India, while still growing faster than most economies, is not exempt from the global slowdown comes from its troubled auto sector. Many international carmakers have stormed into India as they try to counter falling sales in more developed markets.
Sales of passenger vehicles in India, which averaged 17.2 percent annual growth over the last five years, plunged 23.71 percent in November, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Indian automakers slowed production by 6.11 percent in November, and many have slashed prices to attract more buyers.
Job growth is also slowing. Manpower Inc., a global staffing firm, said in a report this week that net employment in India would grow 19 percent next quarter, down from 43 percent this quarter.
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