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Pakistan investors brace for stock index floor removal
Reuters - Saturday, December 13
By Sahar Ahmed
KARACHI, Dec 12 - Investors in Pakistani shares WERE braced for steep stock market declines next week after the Karachi Stock Exchange was ordered to remove a trading floor placed under its leading stock index over three months ago.
"We will probably see the market go down at least 30 percent lower," said Aqeel Karim Dhedhi, chairman of leading brokerage AKD Group, referring to prospects for coming sessions. Circuit breakers will limit the market's daily loss to 5 percent.
Pakistan's market regulator on Thursday told the KSE to remove by Dec. 15 a floor placed on its benchmark 100-share index <.KSE> in late August, since when trade has dried up, investors are locked in and shares are changing hands at a huge discount in off-market trade.
The floor was placed on the KSE index after it fell nearly 35 percent on the year. The floor was placed at 9,144 points and the index ended at 9,187.10 points on Friday.
According to KSE data, in off market transactions as of Dec. 5, Engro Chemicals Ltd <EGCH.KA> was trading 40 percent lower than its official market price at 108 rupees and National Bank of Pakistan <NBPK.KA> was trading almost 39 percent lower at 57.15 rupees.
When the floor is removed on Monday, the KSE-index will have its normal 5 percent upper and lower daily circuit breakers.
MSCI Barra, a provider of investment decision-support tools, said on Thursday it will remove the MSCI Pakistan Index from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index as of the close of Dec. 31 as the floor on the index had effectively prevented trading.
The exchange had delayed removing the floor while authorities weighed options on how to deal with an anticipated flood of selling.
SUPPORT FUND
They had considered establishing a 20 billion rupees government support fund to absorb the selling pressure, but the International Monetary Fund , which last month bailed Pakistan out of a balance of payments crisis, has said it wants some say over whether government money should be used.
"The government did not honour any of its commitments and had they removed the floor earlier, then we would not have to bear such a big loss," said Dhedhi referring to the removal of MSCI Pakistan from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
The government's letter of intent to the IMF said: "the timing and terms under which the floor on stock prices will be removed, including any use of public funds to support the stock market, will be decided after reaching understandings with Fund staff."
A senior exchange official told Reuters last week the IMF is blocking the Pakistani government's plan to provide a fund.
The rupee ended at 78.70/75 to the dollar, unchanged from with Thursday's close and has shed 21.7 percent in value since the start of the year.
The rupee hit a record low of 84.40 on Oct. 17, but steps taken by the central bank and the approval of a $7.6 billion loan from the IMF last month helped market sentiment.
Pakistan's foreign currency reserves stood at $9.095 billion on Dec. 6. Reserves had totalled $9.08 billion as of Nov. 29.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday confirmed a negative outlook on Pakistan's B3 sovereign bond ratings while removing the review for possible downgrade. [IDn:WNA1682]
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