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IMF backs stronger Chinese currency as Asia powers ahead
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IMF backs stronger Chinese currency as Asia powers ahead
AFP - Thursday, April 22
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IMF backs stronger Chinese currency as Asia powers ahead
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WASHINGTON (AFP) - – A stronger yuan is "essential" for both the Chinese and world economies, the IMF said Wednesday as it projected breakneck growth for China and a powerful post-crisis bounce across Asia.
The International Monetary Fund said the Chinese yuan was "substantially" undervalued, heaping more pressure on Beijing to allow the currency to strengthen to help rebalance skewed world trade.
The IMF's latest global report projected that gross domestic product in China, which is set to overhaul Japan this year to become Asia's biggest economy, would rocket by 10 percent in 2010 and 9.9 percent in 2011.
But a yuan adjustment would help China tackle "excess demand pressures," the IMF said in an apparent reference to the threat of rising inflation, and give other emerging economies confidence to let their own currencies strengthen.
"This is essential for China given its large role in the global market," the Washington-based Fund said.
"Greater currency adjustment in Asia would facilitate adjustment in other emerging economies that may fear losing market share if their currencies were to appreciate alone."
The yuan has been effectively pegged to about 6.8 to the dollar since mid-2008. Speculation is growing that Beijing may soon alter its exchange rate policy, as a US-led clamor for change intensifies.
Critics, including a growing number in Asia as well as the United States and Europe, say an undervalued yuan gives Chinese manufacturers an unfair advantage by making their exports cheaper.
As a whole, according to the IMF, Asian economies will expand an average 6.9 percent this year and 7.0 percent in 2011, boosted by both domestic demand and foreign trade.
But it urged regional governments to plan an orderly exit from stimulus policies that helped them weather the global downturn far better than the United States or Europe.
Japan's moribund economy will return to growth of 1.9 percent this year but persistent deflation, weak domestic demand and a stagnant employment picture threaten a fragile recovery, the report said.
Fretting about the risk of contagion from Greece, the IMF cautioned that Japan would in time have to tackle its public debt, which at nearly 200 percent of GDP is the highest in the industrialized world.
India should grow by 8.8 percent this year, the report said, but has "less fiscal room for maneuver" than China and needs to trim its swollen public sector and debt.
Southeast Asia's five biggest developing economies were seen expanding 5.4 percent in 2010.
Australia's resource-driven economy should strengthen 3.0 percent this year, helped by voracious demand for minerals and other commodities to sate Chinese industry's appetite for raw materials.
The IMF's China growth forecast was well above the 8.7 percent growth in 2009 and Beijing's own annual target of eight percent, seen as the minimum needed to create enough jobs in the massive nation to prevent unrest.
Export-led China is seeking to reduce its dependence on overseas shipments and government-backed investment by pumping up domestic spending. The IMF said Asia in general had to shift off its historical dependence on exports.
The Fund cautioned Asian governments against asset bubbles and floods of speculative money that could derail growth, as Western investors seek higher returns and froth builds up in property markets in China and elsewhere.
"For policymakers in Asia's export-driven economies, who now face the prospect of weaker external demand conditions, a key challenge is to effect a durable rebalancing toward domestic sources of growth," it said.
"With regard to monetary policy, it may not be too early to start unwinding the stimulus if output gaps are closing and inflation pressures are beginning to emerge."
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