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RPT-Pakistani rate hike barely helps rupee
Reuters - 1 hour 11 minutes ago
KARACHI, Nov 13 - Pakistani rupee ended little changed on Thursday despite a sharp increase in the key discount rate the previous day. State Bank of Pakistan on Wednesday hiked its discount rate 200 basis points to 15 percent to curb inflation, currently running over 25 percent, reduce the current account and fiscal deficits, and build foreign currency reserves.
"The rise in the discount rate is a positive step with regards to the forex market," said a currency dealer, but there was little reaction.
The rupee ended at 80.29/39 to the dollar, compared to Wednesday's closing of 80.35/45.
Zainab Jabbar, economist at IGI Securities said in a note that with the central bank foreign reserves declining to $3.5 billion and a negative real rate of return, "the SBP had no choice but to raise base rates to current levels."
Some analysts suspect the central bank was under pressure from the International Monetary Fund to to raise rates, as the government is expected to ask the multi-lateral lender for an emergency loan to avert a balance of payments crisis.
While Pakistan and the IMF have been talking, officials say the government has yet to lodge a formal request.
The government is reluctant to submit to the harsh conditions of an IMF package and would like to raise funds from elsewhere.
Pakistan's central bank said on Thursday it has received $200 million from the Islamic Development Bank as the country's reserves are barely enough to cover nine weeks of imports.
Citibank economist Mushtaq Khan said in a note on Thursday that an IMF programme would help restore investor confidence.
"The policy clarity created by such a programme could even compensate for the pain it brings - there is no denying that demand management will be difficult to swallow, but seeing the path to economic stability via detailed macroeconomic framework, could encourage both domestic and foreign investors to look towards the future," Khan wrote.
An articifial floor put under the stock market in late August prevented the Karachi Stock Exchange benchmark 100-share index <.KSE> from registering the negative impact of a sharp rate rise.
The floor was imposed to protect a market that is down 35 percent since the start of the year, but it has killed off trading and locked in investors who might otherwise make a swift exit.
The index ended flat at 9,184.09 on Thursday.
Authorities said last month the floor would be removed when a government support fund was in place. A fund of 20 billion rupees is being finalised to support share prices when the floor goes.
Four state-owned companies are expected to invest 5 billion rupees each and the fund will be managed by National Investment Trust. An exchange official said last month the fund would invest in nine-state owned entities.
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