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Hollywood holding breath on holiday DVD sales
Thu Nov 13, 2008 3:22pm EST
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By Sue Zeidler
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - The appropriately named Batman movie "The Dark Knight" is expected to rule an upcoming holiday DVD sales season that faces a gloomy economy and increasingly somber retail climate.
But despite a murky outlook for the upcoming gift-giving season, many Hollywood executives are maintaining their outlook for the maturing DVD category, saying U.S. sales will remain flat in the fourth quarter and eke out a slight uptick for 2008.
"We're cautiously optimistic," said David Bishop, president of Sony Corp's Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, which is releasing the DVD of its summer superhero film, "Hancock," in coming weeks.
"We'd be foolish to ignore the economic downturn or act like it didn't happen, but ... in times like these people crave entertainment and entertainment at home," he said, noting the industry's strong release slate and the relatively low price of DVDs make for good stocking stuffers.
In addition to Time Warner Inc's "The Dark Knight" and Sony's "Hancock," other holiday releases include Walt Disney Co's "WALL-E," General Electric Co unit Universal Pictures' "Mamma Mia!," Viacom Inc unit Paramount Picture's "Tropic Thunder" and DreamWorks Animation's "Kung Fu Panda."
"Despite rising costs of so many consumer goods, DVD pricing has remained stable," said Kelley Avery, president of Paramount Worldwide Home Entertainment. "Our research has shown that consumers still rank DVDs high on the list for holiday gift-giving."
The fourth quarter usually accounts for 40 percent of yearly U.S. DVD sales, which registered double-digit gains for much of this decade until 2004, when they hit $16.6 billion.
Sales were flat in 2005 and 2006 and then fell about 4.8 percent in 2007 to $15.7 billion, marking the first big drop since the disc format debuted in 1997.
Through late September, U.S. DVD sales were down 2.4 percent at $14.25 billion. Adams Media Research projects a 0.9 percent uptick to $16.1 billion for 2008, but admits it might be optimistic.
"Entertainment media is not as vulnerable to recession as other products, but that being said, we're among those in Hollywood holding their breath to see how consumers respond in the next few weeks and if the industry makes those numbers," said Adams Media analyst Jan Saxton.
BLU CHRISTMAS?
Much of Hollywood's hopes are riding on the expected adoption of the Blu-ray high-definition DVD format, which it anticipates will jumpstart slowed DVD sales.
But seismic changes in consumer behavior and the retail landscape could further slow the shift to Blu-ray. Just two days after consumer electronics retailer Circuit City Stores Inc filed for bankruptcy, rival Best Buy Co Inc on Wednesday slashed its profit forecast.
Various studio executives said Circuit City accounted for 3 percent of their DVD business and owes the industry about $35 million for unpaid DVDs.
"We anticipate shipping DVDs to Circuit City but not at the same levels under normal circumstances," said one executive. Continued...
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