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A Year After Switching Parties, Specter Trails Conservative Rival In Poll
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April 9, 2010 2:52 p.m. EST
Topics: government, politics, poll, public officials, election, United States
Kris Alingod - AHN News Contributor
Washington, DC, United States (AHN) - Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) trails the top Republican challenger for his seat, former Rep. Pat Toomey, according to a poll released on the anniversary of the senator's defection to the Democratic party.
The latest Quinnipiac University survey shows Specter with a 5 point deficit against Toomey, who leads with 46 percent. The Democrat led Toomey in the university's poll last month, 49 percent to 42 percent.
Toomey has more support from his party, with 81 percent of Republicans saying they would vote for him if the general elections were held today. Specter has 78 percent support from his new party, with 10 percent still undecided.
The Republican has the independent vote, 46 percent to 38 percent, while Specter leads among women, 44 percent to 38 percent.
More voters view Specter negatively than positively, with 40 percent overall saying they hold a favorable view of the senator and 46 percent saying they do not.
Among Democratic voters, 71 percent have a positive view of Specter, a finding that seems to confirm observations from some pundits that the senator has proven himself to his new party.
Toomey, in contrast, has more voters overall viewing him favorably. However, three in five voters say they "haven't heard enough" about him. The conservative is viewed positively by 29 percent, negatively by 9 percent, and is unknown to 61 percent.
"On paper, Sen. Specter is vulnerable in the general election because only 36 percent of voters say he deserves another term. But Toomey is so little known that the electorate is torn which way to go," Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a statement.
Apart from voter knowledge about Toomey, political fallout from the passage of healthcare reform will be key in the election this November. Fifty-three percent of voters disapprove of the Obama administration's healthcare legislation, and only 39 percent approve.
In addition, President Barack Obama's slight surge in voter approval following the passage of his healthcare plan has yet to translate to support for vulnerable Democrats, at least in Specter's case. Sixty-eight percent of voters overall said the president's support of Specter doesn't make a difference to their choice of candidate for the Senate. Among groups, 57 percent of Republicans and 73 percent of Democrats said Obama's support made no difference.
Specter is not the only Democrat in the race but has received endorsements from the AFL-CIO and the Steel-City Stonewall Democrats. He faces a challenge from Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), a former three-star Navy Admiral who has a doctorate from Harvard University.
The senator would easily win the Democratic primary against Sestak, 53 percent to 32 percent, statistically the same margin he had over Sestak in a Quinnipiac poll in December. Like Specter, however, Sestak would also lose to Toomey in a general election, 42 percent to 34 percent.
In the money race, Toomey raised $2.3 million in the first quarter. Specter has yet to release his fundraising for the period, but he reported $1.15 million in the fourth quarter last year.
Toomey is continuing his aggressive fundraising with a newly-launched pledge site aimed at raising $280,000 to "commemorate the one-year anniversary of Arlen Specter's party jump." A former Club for Growth president, Toomey is seeking a second chance to unseat Specter, having lost in the 2004 elections by less than 2 percent.
Specter left the Republican Party on April 28 last year, two weeks after Toomey launched his campaign and after months of facing conservative fire for supporting Obama administration bills.
Specter, 80, was one of only three Republicans in the Senate who voted to pass the administration's $787 billion economic stimulus package. He also voted to pass the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, a bill giving workers more time to make pay discrimination complaints. The measure had passed the Senate with 36 opposing votes all coming from Republicans, who had argued the bill would make employers vulnerable to lawsuits.
The senator had attributed his switch to having been criticized by the GOP despite his four decades of work for "ideals of a Republican Party whose tent is big enough to welcome diverse points of view." His decision cost him his ranking position in the Judiciary Committee, and prompted fellow centrists such as Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) to compare moderates in the GOP to "Survivor" contestants.
A graduate of Yale Law School, Specter was a Democrat in his early political life, working for the Warren Commission in its investigation of the assassination of John F. Kennedy.
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