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Taiwan Nov export orders slump, signal harsh slowdown
Reuters - 2 hours 1 minute ago
By Lee Chyen Yee
TAIPEI, Dec 23 - Taiwan logged its biggest ever annual fall in export orders in November as demand from the United States and China slumped as the global economy worsened, data showed on Tuesday.
The orders data is the latest sign that exports in Asian economies such as Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore, could suffer from an even sharper slowdown in coming months, prompting more interest rate cuts in the region, economists said.
Taiwan's November orders, a leading indicator of the strength of the island's actual exports and global tech demand, dropped 28.51 percent from a year earlier, nearly three times the 10.0 percent fall the market had expected.
"Japan and South Korea both have seen their exports slumping. Many big global companies, including Hewlett-Packard, have issued profit warnings. These companies are still working through their inventories, probably into the first quarter," said Hsu Kuo-an, an analyst at Capital Securities in Taipei.
"The Taiwan central bank is widely expected to continue to cut interest rates next year, following suit of many other countries. The central bank would not want Taiwanese exporters to lose their competitiveness against South Korea or Japan."
Tuesday's data came after Taiwan reported that jobless rate rose to the highest level in nearly 5 years, sparking market worries that the tech-reliant economy could be headed for a longer recession.
Taiwan, like most of Asia, has been cutting interest rates aggressively over the past few months due to poor economic data. In mid-December, Taiwan's central bank slashed its main policy rate by 75 basis points to 2.0 percent, the fifth cut in a row and the biggest reduction in 26 years.
In November, orders from the United States fell 29 percent from a year earlier, recording the biggest-ever decline for Taiwan's second biggest export market.
Orders from China, Taiwan's biggest exports market tumbled 45.4 percent, their second-biggest fall on record. The biggest decline was in March 1986, when orders from China fell 50 percent.
"We'll probably see a very small rise for full-year orders. Luckily we saw good figures in the first half," Huang Ji-shih, chief statistician at Taiwan's economics ministry.
Taiwan's orders in November totalled $22.8 billion, the lowest level since February 2006 and down from $30.4 billion in October when orders fell 5.6 percent. In the first 11 months of the year, Taiwan's orders rose 5.13 percent.
Industrial output in November also fell by a record 28.35 percent, data from the economics ministry showed.
"With expectations that the external environment will remain grim for the coming year, the outlook on the export-reliant island certainly looks depressing," said Sue Ann Lee, an economist at Forecast Ltd in Singapore. For table details of orders, please click on [ID:nTP327844] For table details of output, please click on [ID:nTP352752] For graph on export orders, please click on https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/TW_EPXORDS1208.gif
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